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Friday, October 25, 2013

Key Risk Indicator (KRI)

 

What is KRI?

Key risk indicator is same as key performance indicator. but KRI focus on risk and try to predict the future by raise an early warning and alert the user about the probable risk. while KPI is used to monitor the performance over time and based on the current and history information.

How to define your KRIs [KRI Definition]:

Define a risk: First you need to risks that you want to be alerted for.

Define a metric: the next step is define your metric. a metric is a number that will be use to measure the current risk level

Define a threshold: threshold is a risk apatite that means when your metric reached that level then the risk is most probably will occurs.

Build your KRI: KRI will give you a warning when your metric approaches the limit or risk threshold defined. 

Key risk indicator example:

Define a risk: PC CPU is being damaged due to overheat

Define a metric:

  • CPU Usage %
  • CPU Temperature.

Define threshold:

  • CPU Usage % : 90%
  • CPU Temperature: 120 C

Build KRI:

  • CPU Usage %
    • OK [Green] < 50%
    • Take Care [Yellow]: between 50% and 80%
    • Take an action [Red]: > 90%
  • CPU Temperature:
    • Ok [Green] < 90 C
    • Take care [Yellow]: Between 90 And 110
    • Take an action [Red]: >110 

 

Early warning system:

Early warning system is a set of KRI defined to watch or monitor set of risk and send an early warning or alert when the probability of risk occurring is increased. Usually for each identified risk a risk owner should be assigned. Risk owner is the person who should know the response plan for a specific risk if the alarm from that risk happen. he should follow the process and the pre-define plan to overcome the risk.

For extreme important risk you should build a fast alerting methods than displaying the KRI results in a dashboard. you don’t want to wait till some one open his PC and start looking in risk dashboard for warnings. in extreme cases you configure your system to send e-mail or SMS message to risk owner and other related stakeholder.

You need to differentiate between warning messages, Information messages and alarming messages.

Risk Management Process:

Identify risks: In this step you need to list all risk that may affect your goal.

Sort risks: after that you need to assign an impact and probability for each risk. then you have to rank them based on that.

Identify the risks to be monitored: Based on the last step you will make a sort list of the important risks that really will cause you a problem if they occurred. and make another watch list with the excluded risks. 

Create a response plan: For the final risk list you need to assign a risk owner and create an associated risk plan for each. The risk owner should know exactly what he should do when a risk occurred .

Create your KRI: to monitor your risk and give the warning when an action need to be taken.

 

References & other links:

What is a Dashboard?

Overview:

Before we start define Dashboard we need first to explain the following:

  • Indicator
  • KPI
  • KRI
  • Score Card
  • Report
  • Dashboard

Indicator:

Indicator is some visual effects that can give you extra information not included in the original figure.  for example lets say that our profit this month is 10$. as you can see, you can’t judge if this number is good or bad. 10$ so what? if we have another piece of information like target for example or average profit for the last 12 months then we can judge if 10$ is good or bad. there is many type of indicators like

  • Traffic light colors: (red, Yellow, green)
  • Icons:
    • arrows: Up – side – down
    • Faces: smiley – normal – sad
    • progress bars

Note(s):

  • You can use more than one indicator at a time.
  • you can use more levels than 3. for example 5 colors (red – orange – yellow – light green – dark green)

Picture1

 

KPI (Key Performance Indicator):

The main idea of KPI is to measure your actual performance figures against your target. so normal KPI should have at least:

  • Actual figure
  • Target Figure.
  • Indicator
  • Mechanism to display (Chart)

KPI used mainly to measure performance and should give immediate impression about your status. we use indicators to indicate if we are meeting our target or not.Please note that KPI can be any chart type, Find below some examples:

Picture2

KRI (Key Risk Indicator):

KRI is almost same as KPI but only with a few differences:

Feature KPI KRI
Measuring Performance Risk
Against Target threshold

In many cases you need to incorporate an alerting system with KRI to send it immediately by mail or a warning SMS message to risk owner because in most cases you want to act immediately when the risk is triggered.

Score Card:

Score card is a group of related KPIs that will contributes to achieve one big goal. there is 2 types of score cards.

Balanced: this an equal weight score card whish means that every KPI under this goal have the same importance. and when you calculate your achievement % for your goal you Just take the average.

Not Balanced: every KPI under the enterprise goal will have his own weight. the some of all weights should be 100% at the end. and when you calculate your achievement % for your goal you should consider the weights

Picture3

Report:

Summary or detailed information displayed in tales or charts.

Branch Summary Report

10-10-2013 3-10-09 PM

Dashboard:

Dashboard is a container or view that contains any number of the components listed above. typical dashboard should be customized per business user while many customized dashboards may consume the same component. for example you may have KPI used in many dashboards. Dashboard can contains KPI, KRI, Score cards and reports.

Picture4

What is Key Performance Indicator (KPI)?

 

Introduction:

To say it in a generic way, when you start work on something you should first define your goals. After that you should start trying to achieve your goals. Then from time to time you need to check how far you are from your goals and if your performance on achieving your goals is good or bad. here KPI (key performance indicator) come. The main purpose of KPI is to show how close you are from your goal (some how) but wait!!? normally you will need more than one KPI to indicate how far you are from your goal. to make it more easier let’s take a small example or business case but before that I want to leave one final note before ending my introduction. It is clear now that the KPIs will be different from business to another and from industry to another. yes you may have same goals like increase profit or revenue. but the metrics will be changed. hmmm you should get lost by now, let’s take an example

KPI is a metric used to measure and monitor you performance on achieving your goal(s) and it will give you an indication on your performance

Example # 1:

We have a new web site. there is many income ways implemented in our site. like advertisement, exam registration fees, products sold and so one. first we need to set our goals. I will make it here very simple one. currently our net profit is 10$ and our goal is to make it 50$ by end of the facial year (don’t laugh please :-) !!?).

Goal: Increase net revenue of our web site by 500% in one year.

now we have a goal. it is time to find how to archive it. there is many factor will affect our goals and we need to focus on the important one. we called those factors: Metrics. a metric is usually a number somehow will affect your goal like number of sold products, lets define our metrics here.

Net Profit = net income – net cost

Net income= [# of sold products * unit price]  --- Product income

                   + [# of visitor * AD revenue per view]+[# of add clicks * earn per add click]

                   + [# of scheduled exams * exam fee]   -- Exam Income

Net cost = Fixed monthly site maintenance

             + product processing cost

             + Exam setup

             + …….

Now as you can see, there is some variable metrics and some static ones. for example # of visitor is a dynamic variable metric and monthly site maintenance fee is a static one.  you should concentrate on dynamic one in your KPIs.

now I will use # of visitor as a metric in my first KPI. but first is it enough to have a metric. of course not. you need some how to link this to your goal (achieving 50$ by end of year). to make it more clear check the trend graph below:

 

image

As you can see the graph show you number of visitors per month. but this is not enough to know if those figures are good or bad. is 100 visitor in Jan , 65 visitor in Feb & 70 in Mar means that I will be able to achieve my goal by end of year or not. as you can see metric is just a plain numbers and here all what you can indicate is your trend. by linking your metric to time you could get an idea if your number of visitor are increasing or decreeing over time. And as we already saw in our goal definition we need to increase our visitor in general to get more Ad income. Till now this is just a trend metric and there is something missing.

In order to achieve 50$ lets say that our strategy is to focus on Ad profit this year. if I will keep everything else the same then I should get 10$ by end of year and I have to increase my average number of visitor per month. let say the old average number of visitor of may site was 60 visitor per month. If I got on the average 60 visitor per month and everything else remains the same then we should make 10$ profit by end of year. we need to calculate the new required average number of visitor (Target) assuming that we will not change the remaining factors. hmmmm let’s say that we need on the average 90 visitor per month to achieve our target which somehow will lead to achieve our goal. now the graph should like this:

image

congratulations, we now have our first KPI, as you can see after we added our monthly target which required to be met in order to achieve our goal you can indicate your performance month by month to achieve your goal. We can easily see that we performed well in Jan, Apr and Aug. Nearly achieved our target in may and performed bad in the remaining months. so lets recap what we explained so far.

 

How to define your KPIs:

Define a goal: First you need to define your goals or set of goals. If you have a store then your goals should tell you where you should be? and after how long (when?) 

Define a metric: the next step is define your metric. a metric is a number that will affect your goal

Define a Target: find how your metric should behave in order to achieve your goal. target is the required behavior

Build your KPI: KPI will show how your metric will behave against the pre-set target and will indicates your performance against your target required to achieve your goal

Visual elements used to present KPIs (Charts)

in our previous example we had one measure (# of visitor) and one dimension (Time) and this why we selected the line chart because it is the best visual element to show time trend.

lets now take all the combinations:

Single value KPI: If you have one metric and there is no dimension

the best way to present single value KPIs is to use one of the following visual element component:

  • Dial
  • Speedometer
  • Gauge

image

Multivalued KPI: if you have more one or more metric or one or more dimension

Case # 1: One metric & one dimension:

This case will depend on your dimension nature. if this dimension is a time dimension then it is preferred to use Line chart as it is the best to show trends. if your dimension is a cyclic one like months during year (12 month) you may use radar chart. if you have only one dimension like region or customer segment then you may use Pie chart or bar chart.

 

Case # 2: tow metric & one dimension:

in this case you should use the combined chart. it is a combination of line chart and bar chart. the bars will represent one metric and the line will act as the second one. your dimension will be shown in your X axis.

 

Case # 3: one metric and tow dimensions:

you may use one of the following:

  • bar chart.
  • stacked bar chart.

I will make a special post on type of charts (visual elements) and the suitable use of every one.

Key performance Indicator (KPI) types:

internal:

  • to measure internal performance.
  • not shared with outside the unit
  • The connection to the enterprise business goals in not clear and not strongly mapped to the enterprise goals.
  • still important for tracking productivity and people performance.
  • Example:
    • Response time.
    • Delivery rate.

External:

  • Measure the real metrics which directly related the enterprise main goals.
  • Shared and beaked down into smaller KPIs and been measured on smaller units and departments as well.

Final Note(s)

  • Score Cards: some time you may need to group more than one KPI to measure your goal, this what we call it scorecard. if all KPIs in the score card are equal in weight and contribution to achieve the goal then this is a balanced score card. if KPIs will have different weight then this what we call it unbalanced score card.
  • Key Risk Indicator: KRI is exactly same as KPI. but instead of measuring or indicating performance it is indicating RISK.
  • Indicators: You can use many visual effects to indicate good or bad performance. the traffic light 3 colors is the most know and famous one. but still you can use icons and fond size as well.

References & other links: